The Right to Survive
The humanitarian challenge for the twenty-first century
Research Report
Published: Apr 21, 2009
Publication Summary
Each year, on average, almost 250 million people are affected by 'natural' disasters. In a typical year between 1998 and 2007, 98 percent of them suffered from climate-related disasters such as droughts and floods rather than, for example, devastating but relatively rare events such as earthquakes. New research for this report projects that by 2015, this number could grow by more than 50 per cent to an average of over 375 million people affected by climate-related disasters each year.
Any such projection is not an exact science, but what is clear is that substantially more people may be affected by disasters in the very near future, as climate change and environmental mismanagement create a proliferation of droughts, floods and other disasters. And more people will be vulnerable to disasters because of their poverty or location.
Some of these environmental changes will also increase the threat of new conflicts, which will mean more people displaced, and more need for humanitarian aid. One recent report estimated that 46 countries will face a 'high risk of violent conflict' when climate change exacerbates traditional security threats. Already, there is evidence that the number of conflicts is again on the rise.
In short, new and existing conflicts, added to the growth in climate-related disasters, are likely to create, by 2015, an unprecedented level of need for humanitarian assistance that could overwhelm the world’s current humanitarian capacity.
Already, many governments fail to act quickly or effectively enough in response to storms, earthquakes, and other such events, or to take preventative action to reduce unnecessary deaths and suffering. In January 2009, the UN said that many of the 235,000 people killed by disasters in 2008 could have been saved by better government action. Indeed, the very actions of some governments place marginalized people at risk from disasters by discriminating against them, like those forced to live in flimsy slum housing so easily destroyed by floods and landslides.
At the same time, international humanitarian assistance is often too slow or inappropriate, and the UN-led reforms since 2005 to improve it have only begun to make a difference.
