"Resuscitating Doha is essential to right the rigged rules of trade, but what's been simmering on the WTO stove will simply not deliver for poor countries, said Oxfam America president Raymond C. Offenheiser. "The financial crisis, which started in developed countries but is taking its worst toll on developing countries, should be the impetus for a change in course."

In a new report released today called "Empty Promises," Oxfam details how the Doha Round has become an exercise in prying open developing country markets rather than an effort to rebalance decades of unfair agricultural and industrial trade rules. In the midst of a global economic crisis, a food crisis, and a climate crisis, nations with the least blame and with the least capacity to cope with the consequent effects must not have to pay even more to enable their economies to develop, according to the report.

Over 50 million people stand to lose their jobs, remittances are collapsing, and growth in sub-Saharan Africa is predicted to fall by 70 percent this year trapping 90 million more people in poverty, because of the crisis. Food prices meanwhile remain high for poor consumers: by the end of 2008 a further 109 million people had been added to the ranks of hungry, topping 1 billion people worldwide. As the world experiences the sharpest drop in trade in 80 years, a "development" trade deal—as originally promised—remains crucial, according to Oxfam.

"Now is the time for WTO members to come back to the negotiating table, recognize that the current crisis provides an opportunity to address urgent development needs, and change the course of negotiations, much as they did nearly eight years ago in Doha," said Offenheiser. "At this time of desperate need for a change of course, the Doha Round has to step up to deliver on its development promise. There is little credit left for another failure."

The welcome political commitment from the G8 could lead to a fresh start to negotiations, but it cannot be business as usual. In the past eight years, developed countries have used the talks to continue to push to open up new export markets. Developing countries have resisted, saying they were promised a deal that would give them space to protect their farmers and new industries, an end to rich country trade-distorting agricultural subsidies, and more access to rich markets for their farmers and industries.

The widespread food price crisis has shown that food and livelihood security cannot depend solely on market forces. Development, rather than liberalization, has to be the central objective of negotiations and trade rules must respond to the needs of the most vulnerable people first and foremost, according to Oxfam. It is the responsibility of WTO member states to analyze the role of trade in the recent global crises so that the Doha negotiations take into account the new global context and contribute to a solution, rather than exacerbate the problem.

"What's on the table is no silver bullet since it continues to favor the richest and biggest farmers and industrialists in the US and Europe and sidelines the needs of the poor," said Offenheiser. "We have seen what can be done when countries find the resolve to avert problems at home, and this resolve must be translated to the multilateral trade agenda so that the much-needed conclusion of the Doha Round can be achieved in a manner that addresses developing country needs first and foremost."

Published just after the House of Representatives passed a landmark climate change bill and as President Obama prepares to head to the G8 Summit in Italy, "Suffering the Science — Climate Change, People and Poverty" combines the latest scientific observations on climate change and evidence from the communities Oxfam works with around the world, to reveal how the burden of climate change is already hitting poor people hard.

"Climate change is no longer a hypothetical problem, as more and more impacts are becoming evident in vulnerable communities around the world," said Raymond C. Offenheiser, president of Oxfam America. "From failed crops to dwindling reserves of clean water and displacement caused by extreme weather events, climate change is taking its toll on people who already face a daily struggle to survive."

Urgent action must be taken to curb the greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming. But many scientists are now skeptical that the political will exists to make it happen, the report says.

"Many politicians remain unmoved by increasingly urgent calls for action from the scientific community, whereas others are taking action but not at the scale needed to reduce the risks of dangerous climate change," said Professor Diana Liverman, a leading contributor to three IPCC Assessment Reports, member of the National Academy of Sciences Committee and author of the Forward to the Oxfam report. "Without a serious effort to reduce warming, and in the absence of international funds for adaptation, the food, water, health and livelihoods of millions of people will be at risk."

Suffering the Science outlines how climate change is affecting every issue linked to poverty and development today, including:

HUNGER: New research based on interviews with farmers in fifteen countries across the world reveals how once distinct seasons are shifting and rains are disappearing. Farmers from Bangladesh to Uganda and Nicaragua, no longer able to rely on generations of farming experience, are facing failed harvest after failed harvest.

AGRICULTURE: Rice and maize, two of the world’s most important crops, face significant drops in yields even under mild climate change scenarios. Maize yields are forecast to drop by 15% or more by 2020 in much of sub-Saharan Africa and in most of India.

HEALTH: Diseases such as malaria and dengue fever that were once geographically bound are creeping to new areas where populations lack immunity or the knowledge and healthcare infrastructure to cope with them. It is estimated that climate change has contributed to an average of 150,000 more deaths from disease per year since the 1970s, with over half of those happening in Asia.

LABOR: Rising temperatures will make it impossible for people to work at the same rate on hot summer days without serious health impacts. The ramifications for laborers paid by the hour, and the wider economy. Tropical cities such as Delhi could see a drop of 30% in worker productivity.

WATER: Water supplies are becoming so acutely challenged that several major cities including Kathmandu and La Paz which are dependent on the Himalayan and Andes glaciers may soon be unable to function.

DISASTERS: Disasters including mega fires and storms are on the rise and could triple by 2030. The 2005 hurricane season alone caused more than $165 billion in damages and the insurance industry says that climate change will make the situation worse, particularly for poor people who have no access to insurance.

DISPLACEMENT: An estimated 26 million people have been displaced as a direct result of climate change and each year a million more are displaced by weather related events. Island communities from Vanuatu, Tuvalu and the Bay of Bengal have already been forced to move because of sea level rise.

With some champions in Congress and support from the White House, we're hoping to see domestic legislation that not only fines companies who pollute, but also uses some of these funds to help affected communities build their resilience. If we are successful domestically, we can lay the groundwork for a global deal at the UN Climate Change Conference this December—an agreement that will create a more hospitable climate for us all.

Also in this issue: A force of peace in Peru; Rebuilding in Bangladesh; Oxfam America's new role in Darfur.

More than 200 participants, including government officials, academics, and representatives from UN agencies and non-governmental organizations attended the panel discussion on climate change. Featuring panelists from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the international Livestock Research Institute, and the African Union, among others, the talk touched on a broad array of topics including population, health, gender, adaptation and mitigation, upcoming negotiations, and Ethiopia’s current position on climate change.

Participants were invited to join the Green Generation—a movement to help build solutions to the problems of climate change through activities that will help conserve the environment.

"For the first time I realized the urgency of this issue, and the magnitude of the problem," said Misrak Aklilu, project coordinator for Facilitator for Change Ethiopia, following a question-and-answer session on accountability and the pros and cons of urbanization and commercialization. "It is very relevant we all join this campaign realizing this issue requires our individual commitment."

But it was Dawit Basayee, a herder from the Borena zone in the southern part of the country, who gave the problem of climate change a human face. He talked about his day-to-day struggle he faced to keep his family and animals alive during the recent drought. He shared his story about the shortage of food and water that killed most of his livestock; his inability to send his children to school due to the fact that his resources had been depleted; the increasing number of health problems because of scarce water; and the threats of conflict caused by limited water and feed in the area. An exhibition that tells his story was prepared by DanChurch Aid and viewed by the participants.

Oxfam America sponsored the historic event in Addis Ababa, which brought together about 400 participants from the government, non-governmental organizations, businesses, and the UN. Each discussed how best to work together to articulate, document, and share the responsibilities around developing Ethiopia's national policy on climate change.

Ethiopia's Prime Minister, Meles Zenawi, called on all organizations in the country to join the National Climate Change Forum, which Oxfam helped establish to coordinate institutions in addressing droughts, floods, reduced crops, and an increase in illnesses like malaria and HIV/AIDS.

"However unjust it might be we have to adapt or die. We can only succeed to adapt to climate change if we fight poverty effectively and generate the resources needed for the purpose," Zenawi said. Read additional comments from Prime Minister Zenawi (PDF).

Oxfam is asking that industrialized countries like the US, as well as developing countries like Ethiopia, work together—to not only to address the existing pollution that's causing global warming—but to also put a special emphasis on responding to effects such as more severe drought and storms. We're supporting US legislation and an international climate deal that establish funding for poor communities to become more prepared, resilient, and secure. Some climate change "adaptation responses" include: planting drought resistant seeds, building food banks, and setting up water pumps.

"Here is the painful reality: Even if we completely stopped all harmful emission of greenhouse gas pollutants tomorrow, the damage from the emissions already up in the atmosphere will run its course for the next 50 years or more ... we must move forward on adaptation," said Janet McKinley, chairwoman of Oxfam America. "Oxfam is fighting hard to ensure that the poorest nations have the necessary funding and technology to do so." Read the full text of Ms. McKinley's speech (PDF).

The reservoir is at the base of large, steep hill, more like a small mountain really. At the top is a spring, from which water flows through pipes to the pond. It was constructed three years ago by a nearby organization called Action for Development with support from Oxfam America. Before then Jarrso's clan members had to herd their cows up the steep hill, the only means to get water in the dry season. Every day cows would expire on the path up to the spring.

"During the dry time there is no grass to eat," Jarsso says. "They could not climb, so we pushed them up, and some would die." There were years in which more than 10 a day would die on that hill.

Piping the water down the hill helps tremendously. More cows can access the water, the herders and their families can retain more of their wealth and can better survive the dry season, and they get clean, fresh water to drink and cook with, and wash their clothes in.

But the reservoir does not help one ongoing problem: herders are reporting that good pasture for grazing their cattle is harder and harder to find, and not just in the dry season. Jarsso and others in his clan say there are three main reasons for the disappearing pasture:

1. Population pressure: As more and more young people grow up and start their own herds and families, there is greater and greater pressure on existing grasslands to support more cattle. Since it is difficult to move around enough to find good pasture, overgrazing has become a more serious problem than ever.
2. The rainy season seems to be getting shorter: When there is enough rain the Borena can shift around their herds and share what pasture is available, but when the rainy season is shorter than normal the grass does not grow back—and when grass is not mature it does not satisfy the nutrition needs of the cattle. The traditional system of herding the cows to different areas to allow the grass to grow again does not work when the rains fail.
3. Bush encroachment: There are more than five species of thorn bushes and trees that are crowding out grasses. The animals can't eat them, and they take up what little water is available. The grass the Borena need for their cows to survive cannot grow. Borena used to burn these bushes to promote the growth of grass and control ticks. But more than 20 years ago this practice was banned by the government and since then the bush is expanding and cows are suffering from tick infestation, and milk production is dropping off.

"The Borena people have many different methods for coping with drought," says Abera Tola, director of Oxfam America's program in Ethiopia. "But some of these bushes are new to them, and the increase in tick infestation may both be related to changes in the climate. We want to research this to find ways to help them."

Bilalo Jarsso said the Borena are trying to survive despite these challenges, and are accustomed to traveling two to three days at a time looking for decent pasture.

"We used to find grass somewhere," he said. It is becoming more and more difficult now.

Oxfam America's partner AFD is helping herders take a more active approach, teaching the Borena to manage their range land more aggressively and actually clear away the encroaching bushes to improve the pasture for grazing. This would be particularly crucial in the dry season, says Tolusa Kemaio, a project officer for AFD.

"The dry season is a very serious time here," he says. "People really struggle, and they can't just slaughter their animals to survive."