My gift, according my father, is that while most people look at a 15-hour flight as torture, I look at is a time to get some rest. And he is right. My flight went by in a flash. I got some reading done, some work done, and slept the rest of the way curled up in my seat with my neck pillow and noise-cancelling earphones (best birthday gift ever).
My first hours in Zimbabwe were filled with contradiction. As I walked out of the airport in Harare I was greeted by clean, cool evening air. I was then welcomed by Oxfam's humanitarian program coordinator, Ransam, with a hug and a joke. But as we drove to my hotel the empty streets were shocking. It was only 10 pm, but there were almost no other cars on the road and very few people walking. We pulled into the hotel and as we walked up to reception the crickets were singing. I could tell, even in the dark, how beautiful the landscape was. But as a sign of the times in Zimbabwe, when I checked in I learned the hotel wanted me to pay cash—in advance—for my room and it preferred US dollars or Euros.
After checking in, I met up with Lyndsay, Oxfam's public figures liaison. She worked to put this trip together and I could tell she wanted it to go well. She has a lot of respect for Emile after their trip to the Congo last year. He gets it, she said, and really wants to learn. As for me, I couldn't wait to meet him and made her knock on his door at 10 p.m. to introduce us. He was tired but cheerful and very excited about the trip. We kept the meeting short: tomorrow would be the car ride to the rural area and we could get acquainted then.
I am always so tired at the end of the day in Mudzi, a region in the northeast part of the country where Oxfam has been working on the cholera outbreak. After a two-hour car ride from Harare we arrived at the Pumpkin Hotel—the only hotel in this region. We settled in (Emile got the suite with the waterbed, and I got the one next door) and had some lunch: Eggs and sadza—a finely ground cornmeal boiled in water.
After lunch, we headed out to look at a bore hole—a narrow well drilled deep into the ground. Mudzi has hundreds of them. They're the source of drinking water for many people in this rural region. This one was a half-hour-drive away on a bumpy, dry road—and when we arrived, we found hundreds of community members waiting for us.
Sitting in two large groups, they had prepared a speech and gifts: beautiful hand-crafted baskets and several large bags of fresh peanuts tied in large burlap bags with "product of USA" stamped on their sides. These bags had been recycled from earlier food distributions. The villagers wanted to show their gratitude for the work Oxfam and our local partner, Single Parents Widow(er)s Support Network, or SPWSN, had done together: teaching communities about hygiene , providing them with basic goods like soap, and repairing their bore holes.
Emile confessed to me that he thought the word was "boar" hole. And why not? if you were not a water engineer or public health person or someone dependent on these holes for water, how would you know what they were? It made me realize how little the developed world knows or understands about those who still fetch water by hand and don't have access to flushing toilets—or even pit latrines.
Back at the meeting, Emile addressed the village, thanking them for their hospitality and acknowledging their strength as a people and as a community. He was nervous and I could tell he had really thought through what he wanted to tell his hosts.
That is why this trip is so important: To get the word out. Yes, the number of cases of cholera might be less each week, but what about next year? How do we stop an outbreak from happening again? This year in this village this outbreak left 25 orphans. This is a staggering number of children who have lost their stability—all because they and their families could not access clean water.
As we drove back to the Pumpkin Hotel, I thought again, with amazement, about how so much devastation can happen in such a beautiful setting, and how the people can keep going with such optimism and positive attitudes. I realized it had been an important day for Emile, too: He was beginning to understand the context of people's lives, how they cope, and the importance of supporting them when their options run out.
We spent another long and dusty day in the field. Today we watched as nearly 2,000 people gathered to learn about cholera. They sang, laughed, and watched plays all about a deadly bacterial disease that can kill a person in a matter of days with diarrhea and vomiting. We listened to health promoters from Oxfam and SPWSN as they talked and sang about feces, and watched as they faked illness and dying—all to teach the audience about cholera.
Emile was amazed at the teams' drama and acting capabilities and at the community's ability to laugh about something so devastating. My favorite part was the singing—so lyrical and powerful. I found myself singing along (not nearly as well, of course) and envious that they could make such beautiful music with nothing but their voices.
We spent the second half of the afternoon driving to a cholera treatment center. The number of cases had finally started to wane but it was hard to know if it was just because the rains had stopped or if all our hard work was paying off. I am sure it was a combination of both—but we will know for sure next year when the rains come again. That is why we are going to continue our work after the outbreak is over: We'll introduce clean water at the level of the household using sand filters. We are going to try and break the cycle of yearly diarrheal outbreaks—lofty goal, but worth shooting for.
The day started out with a 9 a.m. meeting at the local hospital and a report on new cases. Yesterday, the cholera early warning surveillance system Oxfam put in place with SPWSN detected new cases. For the past several weeks there were only sporadic cases, but yesterday, following a funeral the day before , 19 cases were detected. It was amazing to be there and see our early warning system working—and to learn about the response. All 19 patients were brought to the health center and the response featured bore hole repairs, the delivery of supplies to the health center (including a salt and sugar solution for oral rehydration, disinfectant, tents, and beds) and the launch of a public health education campaign for the affected community. Amazing! By getting the patients to the health center so fast the hope was to avoid more deaths—and more funerals.
As we were listening to the report, I looked over at Emile, who was absorbing all the details and asking thoughtful questions. I was glad he was there so he could return home and share what he had learned about the seriousness of the situation in a way other people might be able to understand.
Oxfam had jumped in to supply ever-scarce fuel and supplies for the response. While everyone hopes this epidemic is winding down, no one was surprised that that there were still cases erupting. The infrastructure in Zimbabwe is so broken down it will take years to build a safe water system for all to use. Our biosand filters—a water treatment method that is used in the household—will provide more long-term protection for families and hopefully prevent diarrhea for them in the coming year.
The filters arrived the other day—thanks to UPS, who shipped them from the US for free—and we swung by the warehouse to look at them: large blue buckets with very little tubing. Their simplicity is amazing. I had drawn a picture for Emile the night before and explained how they worked. When he saw them in person, his eyes lit up: it all came together. I was happy to see someone who was just as excited as me about these blue plastic buckets and their potential to save lives.
We spent the night talking about the trip—all the things we saw and experienced. I pulled out my computer and we had a discussion, using a power point lecture, about the role of evidence in humanitarian response: How do you set up an early warning surveillance? Why is it so complicated? Why is it so important? I could see that Emile was synthesizing all the things he had learned over the past week, putting them together and grasping the complexities that make up Zimbabwe.
I am looking forward to reading what he writes. I am sure I will learn something from him and can't wait.
]]>With some champions in Congress and support from the White House, we're hoping to see domestic legislation that not only fines companies who pollute, but also uses some of these funds to help affected communities build their resilience. If we are successful domestically, we can lay the groundwork for a global deal at the UN Climate Change Conference this December—an agreement that will create a more hospitable climate for us all.
Also in this issue: A force of peace in Peru; Rebuilding in Bangladesh; Oxfam America's new role in Darfur.
]]>"We survived the shelling, but now we've nothing to eat," said Mr Gul. "The fighting was all around us. Five members of my family were killed in the attack. It was terrifying. We left everything and walked here. Now we've no food and not enough water."
Mr Gul and his family fled with literally just the clothes on their backs and are crammed into a small tent without any blankets or possessions. "I've heard some wheat will be distributed tomorrow, but how can we cook it?" said Mr Gul, gesturing around the bare tent. "We've no pots or pans, no utensils, no stove."
A feeling of depression and listlessness hangs over the camp. Ten days ago it was a patch of bare ground wedged in between a market and a road within the town of Mardan. Now it's the new home to eight thousand civilians caught up in the fighting. They lie in the intense heat, struggling to get through the worst of the day as temperatures soar into the 40s. Like Mr Gul and his family, most of them look worn out. Water is short and they've not been able to wash for days.
"I'm worried about the children," said Mr Gul. "They're already getting diarrhea and allergies. I think they could easily get malaria. There's not enough water to keep them clean."
Life is especially tough for the women. Many don't want to meet unfamiliar men and feel they must spend the day inside the roasting hot tents. There's nowhere private and secluded enough for them to wash. Some water is making it into the camp in tankers, and Oxfam will start bringing in more over the coming days, as well as providing soap, buckets, and cooking gear. But it's only a relief, not the solution.
"The difference between home and here is the difference between the earth and the sky," said Roshana Bibi, one of a group of women huddling under a tree for shade. "Going back home would be like going to heaven."
]]>"We're seeing a flood of families arriving from the conflict area, carrying whatever possessions they could bring," said Neva Khan, Oxfam country director in Pakistan.
"The provincial authorities and aid agencies are working hard to cope with the huge influx. But with clashes continuing and thousands more families on their way, much more needs to be done—especially to meet the needs of the most vulnerable, such as women and girls.
"The lack of sufficient water and sanitation facilities is causing problems for many people. With the current hot temperatures set to rise and torrential monsoon rains just six weeks away, the risks of illness and disease are rising fast. The Pakistani authorities, donors, and aid agencies need to respond quickly and effectively to prevent further suffering."
Working closely with local partner organizations, Oxfam is providing essential items and services, such as water and sanitation facilities and health information, not only to people in camps but also to those staying in cramped, difficult conditions with host families whose resources are already overstretched.
"Although they are less visible, around three-quarters of displaced people have sought refuge outside camps. We need to ensure that they are not neglected," said Neva Khan.
More than 360,000 people have registered in camps and special centers for displaced people in recent weeks, with another 200,000 estimated to be on their way following renewed fighting between government forces and armed groups in Pakistan's North West Frontier Province.
This latest exodus comes amid renewed fighting between Pakistani government forces and armed groups and is in addition to more than 550,000 people who have fled their homes since August 2008 to escape previous clashes. Oxfam assisted more than 15,000 women, men, and children who fled their homes in NWFP after battles erupted in the region last year.
Scores of civilians have reportedly been killed or injured in recent weeks of clashes and many thousands more have lost their homes and livelihoods.
An estimated 200,000 civilians are thought to be trapped in areas where intense fighting continues. The humanitarian community has no access to these populations. Oxfam calls on all sides in the conflict to take special care to avoid harming non-combatants and to allow humanitarian workers safe access to assist civilians affected by the conflict wherever they are.
Oxfam also calls on the international community to support efforts by the government and aid agencies to provide displaced civilians with emergency relief as well as plans to help them return to their communities to rebuild their homes and livelihoods.
Aiming to reach the most vulnerable women, men, and children, Oxfam has been providing humanitarian relief and development in Pakistan for more than 35 years.
]]>According to Oxfam, while a solution is needed to halt appalling levels of human rights abuses committed by armed rebels, the answer cannot be action that knowingly increases levels of human suffering.
Marcel Stoessel, head of Oxfam in DRC, said:
"Four months ago an offensive against the FDLR set in train a spiral of violence against civilians which has forced 250,000 to flee their homes and caused untold death and suffering that continues to this day. By any yardstick it has been a humanitarian disaster, and one the world has ignored. The UN force's top priority in Congo must be to protect the lives of innocent civilians. The UN needs to be aware of the full implications of continuing to support military action in the present circumstances."
Oxfam said any military action should ensure that risks to civilians are kept to an absolute minimum and, in accordance with international humanitarian law. The agency also called for appropriate sanctions for any violations of international humanitarian law noting that for too long human rights abuses, including by government soldiers, have gone largely unpunished.
The aid agency urged the UN to set out and stand by clear preconditions, based on rigorous observance of international humanitarian law, for MONUC support to any military action by the FARDC. It also called for greater emphasis on non-military efforts to disarm rebel groups, which present less risk to civilians but so far have not been given sufficient priority.
The previous joint offensive against the FDLR in North Kivu, launched in January 2009, has already created immense suffering for thousands of civilians. An estimated 250,000 people are still unable to return to their homes. Villagers have reported that thousands of homes have been burned to the ground in reprisal attacks mainly by the FDLR. Rape and looting by all sides, including government forces, has also been reported. According to recent reports, 100,000 people have already fled their homes in South Kivu, even before the new offensive has started. Aid agencies are planning for the possible displacement of a further 400,000 people in South Kivu.
Oxfam had to expand its programs in North Kivu after the first offensive, bringing life-saving assistance to at least a further 85,000 people, in addition to those that it was helping already. Oxfam has also opened a new rapid response office in Bukavu, South Kivu, to be prepared for possible humanitarian fallout there. The international agency urged all major donor countries to give sufficient attention to the humanitarian crisis, which has been raging since January.
Oxfam is helping to support more than 500,000 people affected by the conflict.
]]>Oxfam Hong Kong responded with relief work in the first few months following the disaster, bringing relief supplies to 125 impoverished communities and getting children back into safe, temporary schools. As of March 31, 2009, we have worked alongside 20 organizations in 3 provinces, supporting about 700,000 people as they rebuild their communities; allocation for these 37 relief and reconstruction projects total over HK$33 million.
One year on from that terrible morning, the relief phase is over. As a poverty-relief agency, Oxfam's task is not only to help lives return to normal, but to improve economic well-being and permanently reduce people's vulnerability to future natural disasters. In this task, Oxfam's priority is to assist the poorest and most marginalized survivors of the disaster: women, children, the elderly and ethnic minorities.
]]>It was in late March that I started receiving increasingly worrying reports about alleged atrocities in remote areas of North Kivu province. Military operations by the Congolese army against a rebel group known as FDLR—Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda—had continued (Rwandan troops deployed in a joint operation with the Congolese army withdrew in February); and reports suggested that the offensive was likely to expand to South Kivu.
I heard about reprisal attacks, the burning of houses, sexual violence, looting, and people being prevented from accessing their fields—their only source of food. Many of these reports were coming from areas where Oxfam teams had begun carrying out life-saving work with a local partner, helping to provide safe drinking water, clean latrines, and public health education.
I could not believe what I was reading: Up to 250,000 people reported to have left their homes since January.
Some of our senior staff, as skeptical as me, went to the field and came back with a clear report: It is true, they told me; it's just not on TV yet. Our immediate response was to scale up our emergency operations in South Lubero, which is in North Kivu. Water trucks were sent to provide clean water to displaced placed and the families who hosted them. Hygiene items were distributed, and health promoters were deployed to help prevent the outbreak of epidemics.
We also decided to open an emergency response office in the neighboring province of South Kivu where we were getting reports of another military build-up, indicating that a similar tragedy could happen there.
A few days later, I was on a plane crossing this vast country towards the conflict zone to support our field staff and to get a first-hand view of what was happening. After two flights and a trip by road I finally arrived in Lubero. The government representative there told me people needed urgent help.
I continued by road southwards into what the United Nations called the "red zone"—an area where military escorts are recommended. Oxfam refuses such escorts, due to concerns that we may be perceived as supporting a particular side in any conflict. It was one day after an attack on the town of Luofu, where 255 houses were burned to the ground.
We met some displaced people on the road, who were fleeing the fighting, carrying the few possessions they could take with them. They were exhausted and desperate. They were heading to a town called Kirumba, which was also our destination. Several thousand people had gathered there for an Oxfam emergency distribution of essential hygiene items.
Through an interpreter, I heard some of their stories. One woman witnessed another being gang-raped by three armed men. The victim died later, the witness told me. The witness—an old woman—ran away from her village with her children, but had become separated from her husband, who fled in another direction. She told me the few items she had managed to carry with her were taken away by soldiers.
As the Oxfam distribution of hygiene items continued, we travelled further south to a town called Kanyabayonga, where Oxfam was distributing water. The town's population has more than doubled during the recent fighting, and Oxfam is trucking in 180,000 liters of clean water every day.
Village chiefs gathered to tell me their stories. Since the start of the military operations, civilians are seen with suspicion by both warring sides, and accused of being collaborators. People have had no choice but to leave their villages—but they also have had nowhere safe to go.
They arrived in Kanyabayonga, they said, terrified, tired, and in need of protection and help. The fighting had not stopped. One day before we arrived, the FDLR rebels had attacked Kanyabayonga itself.
People were living with host families—in some cases, up to five other families in a house. I tried to imagine how it would be—no clean water, only basic squat latrines, with little money and a war going on around me.
But what really broke my heart was to hear about the systematic burning of houses in these remote areas of North Kivu province. Villagers reported that many thousands of homes had been burned to the ground.
There are about 17,500 UN peacekeepers stationed in Congo—but with little visible presence here to give these vulnerable people any sense of safety. People I spoke to wanted to see UN peacekeepers patrol on foot, to be present in their communities. To protect them.
Now I'm back in the eastern provincial capital, Goma, where Oxfam coordinates its emergency operations in Congo. I am happy that we have managed to scale up our emergency work in South Lubero. More help will come, if the security situation permits. If only the world would not look away.
]]>Marcel Stoessel, Head of Oxfam in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, who just came back from the conflict zone, said: "There is nowhere that is safe in the area I visited. Villagers are being forced to flee, some for the fifth or sixth time, losing family members on the way. Women are being raped and abused. People have been looted of the few possessions they owned, and have had their houses burned to the ground—all of this is happening as we speak, but the world is looking away.
"The stories I heard are heartbreaking. A woman told me how she witnessed a brutal gang rape of a neighbor by three armed men. She thinks the victim must have died afterwards. She ran away with her children, but her husband ran in another direction. She does not know where he is."
At least 250,000 people have been forced to leave their homes since January. Oxfam is alarmed about the lack of protection of civilians in their home villages, but also about their safety in the towns they fled to, where armed men are also carrying out serious abuses.
There are not enough UN peacekeepers patrolling the areas affected by the new violence, leaving civilians feeling scared and vulnerable. While there are around 17,500 MONUC peacekeepers in the country, the force has very little visible presence in the areas to which people have fled.
"Communities tell us that they would like to see more peacekeepers patrolling the areas on foot, so that they feel safer," said Stoessel.
Oxfam called on MONUC to ensure that its resources are deployed in areas where they can best protect people at risk.
Oxfam this month significantly scaled up its life-saving emergency response by providing clean water, sanitation, and carrying out crucial hygiene promotion activities. Up to 150,000 additional people will benefit from this assistance.
With the military operations against the FDLR now expanding to South Kivu, Oxfam is also concerned for civilians there, with initial reports of thousands of people already fleeing in anticipation of increased violence and attacks. Oxfam has opened a new rapid response office in Bukavu, South Kivu, to be prepared for possible humanitarian fallout.
"What we have seen in North Kivu sets a terrible precedent for what may happen in South Kivu," said Stoessel. "Oxfam calls on all parties to the conflict, including the Government, to respect the life, dignity and property of civilians."
]]>Working closely with Sri Lankan partner organizations, Oxfam is providing primarily clean water, sanitation and public health assistance to families arriving in government-controlled areas, as well as cooked food and other essential relief items. Plans are in place to assist up to 60,000 more.
However, over 50,000 civilians may still remain trapped in a small, heavily crowded rebel-held enclave in northeast Sri Lanka, where humanitarian conditions are now catastrophic. Hundreds have been killed or injured in the past few days. Children are dying of untreated wounds as well as a lack of clean water and unhygienic conditions.
Both sides must pause in their battle to allow trapped civilians to leave safely and for humanitarian workers to reach the sick and wounded, said Oxfam.
"For each day that passes without at least pause in fighting, civilian families are paying with their lives," said Joan Summers, Oxfam Country Director in Sri Lanka.
Oxfam calls on both parties to the conflict to fulfill their obligations under international humanitarian law by permitting safe civilian evacuations and humanitarian access, respecting the lives and neutrality of all non-combatants.
Oxfam urges the Sri Lankan government to fulfill its obligations under national laws and international humanitarian law by ensuring the humanitarian relief effort is increased rapidly and significantly, allowing both national and international aid workers safe and unhindered access to affected families.
Oxfam also urges the international community to help affected civilians by pressing for a humanitarian pause in the fighting by and supporting efforts to provide the 250-300,000 Sri Lankans displaced by the war with both adequate emergency relief and longer term recovery assistance.
Oxfam has been working closely with local partners to provide safe drinking water, sanitation facilities such as latrines and hygiene kits, emergency shelter, and other essential items to thousands of displaced civilians. Our relief activities have been targeting the most vulnerable civilians such as women and children.
]]>]]>
Today's international meeting, sponsored by the European Union and the United Nations, comes at a critical time when over 3.2 million Somalis are in desperate need of emergency assistance, a 77 percent increase since January 2008. More than one million people have fled their homes in the last two years.
"The piracy issue that has grabbed international headlines is a symptom of deeper issues that have gone unaddressed ever since the collapse of the national government in 1991," said Robert Maletta, Policy advisor for Oxfam. "Without economic opportunities offering alternatives to criminality and without law and order to curb these activities, then the massive economic returns of hijacking ships will continue to drive piracy."
Drought is deepening across the country, devastating people's incomes and leaving the majority with little or no access to clean water. Families are finding it difficult to meet their most basic needs as prices for basic food items are at record high levels—many have doubled since this time last year.
"The plight of the Somali people and ways to alleviate their suffering should be top of the agenda of donor governments in Brussels. The International community must urgently focus their attention on finding ways to assist the millions of people in desperate need," said Maletta.
Beyond aid, Oxfam called on nations to investigate reported violations of international humanitarian and human rights laws in the country, noting that lack of accountability has exacerbated the humanitarian crisis in Somalia as civilians continue to get caught in the crossfire and are forced to flee from their homes in huge numbers.
Oxfam welcomes the call by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to hold groups involved in piracy to account. "The international community must hold those same standards to groups who violate international humanitarian and human rights laws in the country," said Maletta.
]]>The rise in numbers—from the current 250 million per year to 375 million by 2015—is due to the increasing threat of climate change-induced severe weather events and inability of millions of people worldwide to prepare to deal with such catastrophes. In the report, The Right to Survive, Oxfam America recommends adequate and urgent investments in climate change adaptation and an overhaul of the current system of humanitarian assistance in order to meet the challenge of more frequent and devastating disasters.
"Entrenched poverty in many parts of the world makes people more vulnerable to disasters," said Raymond C. Offenheiser, President of Oxfam America. "Climate change is already threatening our work to overcome poverty, and now it is increasing the pressure on our relief work. It is crucial that we tackle global warming head on by cutting dangerous greenhouse gas emissions, but we must also invest in community preparedness to cope with climate-related disasters."
According to the report, the international humanitarian system must change the way it delivers aid, with a focus on helping build countries’ ability to prepare and withstand future shocks. The report recommends increased humanitarian aid to ensure there is adequate funding to support timely, effective, and good-quality humanitarian action. In addition, Oxfam urged aid providers—including the US government—to act impartially after a disaster, investing money and effort to commensurate with the levels of need.
As climate-related disasters increase, aid must be more focused on preparing communities, working with local NGOs and governments to create relief that works in the long-term, and helping make vulnerable communities stronger in the face of climate change.
"Communities around the world have the knowledge and experience to craft their response to the negative impacts of climate change, but they need adequate funding to make it happen," said Offenheiser. "Investing in community resilience, especially for the most vulnerable, must be a cornerstone of any American effort on climate change."
The report is released right as important climate change legislation is moving through the Energy and Commerce Committee of the House of Representatives and as the White House prepares to host a high-level meeting of developed countries in Washington on climate change.
"Now is the time for bold action on climate," said Offenheiser. "We must not only improve our response to disasters, but also fund measures that help communities adapt to climate change. After all, it is poverty and failure to recognize everyone’s right to survive that turn a storm into a disaster."
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UPDATE: April 2011
This note is to briefly explain why Oxfam has revised its view of its 2009 forecast of a likely rise in the number of people affected by climate-related disasters.
Two years ago Oxfam did an analysis of the number of people affected by past climate-related events. From this analysis we made a forecast that by 2015 it was likely that the average annual number of people affected by climate-related disasters would be 375 million and this represented an increase of 54 per cent compared with the average figure of the decade 1998-2007.
Having reviewed the data and the method we used to analyse the data we are no longer confident in the specific approach we used, given the nature of the data, as described below, and so we are no longer confident of this specific forecast.
Our concerns are essentially two-fold: the limitations of the data and the limitations of the way we analysed the data.
The limitations of the data: The data we used was from EM-DAT, the international disaster database managed by CRED, the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. This is a respected set of data which captures, amongst other things, the number of disasters that has happened and the number of people affected.
Like most sets of data it has its limitations. In EM-DAT’s case one of the key limitations is that the more recent data is more reliable. This was well known to us and we dealt with this in our analysis by using double exponential smoothing on the data (see the explanation of how we carried out the analysis and catered for the data’s limitation).
However one limitation we did not know at the time and have only recently discovered is that the number of people affected by climate-related disasters in China is unusually low in first half of the 1980s when compared with subsequent years. It is highly likely that this is the result of under reporting from China. Given the size of China’s population its disaster figures are significant when considering the global picture. The likely impact of this on our forecast may mean that we started our analysis with data from 1980 that was likely to be unreasonably low and therefore made our projected increase in the number of people affected artificially high.
We now know that there has been a significant increase in reporting from many other countries over the same period due to better information and communication.
Limitations of our analysis: Though we were clear in our explanation of the way we came to our conclusion that “different forecasting models could lead to different results,” what we should have done, particularly given the high volatility of the data especially in 2002, was run these different models to help determine the degree of confidence in the conclusion we came to.
It does not mean though that there will not be an increase in the numbers of people affected by disasters in the future. There is evidence to point to this likelihood.
According to EM-DAT the number of climate-related disasters has increased by 35 per cent from the 1990s to the 2000s. Floods have increased by 50 per cent over the same period. Munich Re’s database of global disasters also shows an increasing trend in climate-related events. It is not possible to know how much of this is an increase in events or better reporting of events and neither can we assume that an increase in events will lead to an equal increase in numbers affected.
Population growth means that there is a likelihood of more people being affected by climate-related events.
The number of people exposed to some climate-related events is also on the increase. According to the forthcoming United Nations Global Assessment Report 2011 the number of people exposed to floods and cyclones has doubled between 1970 and 2010. It is likely that many people who are ‘exposed’ to hazards are not affected due to measures that protect them, such as flood defences for example. However in many vulnerable countries investment and efforts to reduce significantly the risk of disasters is sorely lacking leaving millions exposed and likely to be affected by disasters.
Finally as the effects of climate change become more apparent there are more frequent and more intense climate-related events according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report.
Oxfam is in the process of further research into the number of people affected by climate-related events and will be publishing the results of this research in due course.
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According to UN figures, some 250,000 people in the provinces of North and South Kivu have been displaced since mid-January following a military operation targeting the FDLR rebel group. This is the equivalent to the numbers displaced last autumn when intense fighting broke out, with the newly displaced hidden in far and remote areas, the international aid agency said.
Marcel Stoessel, Head of Oxfam in the Democratic Republic of Congo said:
"The war is far from over for ordinary Congolese. These terrible human tragedies are happening in remote areas far away from television cameras, but this does not make the suffering less real for those concerned.
"Homes and shops are being looted and ransacked, women and girls are being raped, and civilians are being forced to flee, many for the third or fourth time. We are helping them pick up the pieces by increasing our emergency work. It is tragic to see Congo's civilians caught up in this awful violence yet again."
There also have been reports of armed men committing reprisal killings of civilians, blocking off roadways, in some cases burning down houses and chasing people away. In parts of Lubero, where most people are subsistence farmers, civilians can barely access their fields to harvest due to widespread insecurity and looting.
With the operations against the FDLR set to expand to South Kivu, there are mounting concerns for civilians there, several tens of thousands of whom have already been forced from their homes. Although, according to the UN, some 300,000 other people have returned to their homes in parts of the North Kivu, the calm in some areas, such as Rutshuru, has been accompanied by renewed insecurity in others, such as Lubero and Walikale.
Oxfam is developing a flexible response to the new crisis that can provide water, sanitation and life-saving hygiene promotion to dispersed groups of people on the move, as well as larger groups of people sheltering in specific areas. Fighting and insecurity has hampered humanitarian access this year, and a quicker and lighter response is required to reach people during windows of opportunity. Throughout eastern DRC, Oxfam is already assisting half a million people, and as a result of the scale up the agency will reach 650,000 people, despite ongoing security challenges. Teams have been sent to Lubero in North Kivu and Bukavu in South Kivu to plan the scale-up. In Lubero, Oxfam is already providing clean water and basic sanitation to 40,000 people newly displaced by the fresh fighting, especially to combat epidemics.
Stoessel continued:
"All parties to the conflict—including the government armed forces as well as militia groups—have to live up to their responsibility under international humanitarian law to protect civilians and to provide humanitarian agencies safe access to the civilians in need."
Oxfam said a lack of peacekeeping resources on the ground was also hampering efforts to protect civilians.
The Head of Oxfam International's New York office, Nicole Widdersheim, said, "More than four months after the UN Security Council approved 3,000 additional peacekeepers, not one extra soldier has arrived. Until the reinforcements come, MONUC needs to ensure that the troops on the ground are doing all in their power to protect people. Civilians need more foot patrols in towns and along the main roads in order to be kept as safe as possible."
With the UN Security Council set to discuss the MONUC peacekeeping force on Thursday this week, Oxfam is urging world leaders to mark the occasion by rapidly providing the extra troops needed. It also called on them to ensure that existing resources are deployed to the most insecure locations, so as to more effectively protect civilians.
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