Research http://www.oxfamamerica.org These are the search results for the query, showing results 121 to 135. The Human Cost of Small Arms http://www.oxfamamerica.org/publications/the-human-cost-of-small-arms An Oxfam International paper for the UN Conference on the Illicit Trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons in All Its Aspects.

]]> No publisher mborum 2009-06-30T22:20:57Z Research Report The Right to Survive http://www.oxfamamerica.org/publications/the-right-to-survive The humanitarian challenge for the twenty-first century

UPDATE: April 2011

 

This note is to briefly explain why Oxfam has revised its view of its 2009 forecast of a likely rise in the number of people affected by climate-related disasters. 

Two years ago Oxfam did an analysis of the number of people affected by past climate-related events. From this analysis we made a forecast that by 2015 it was likely that the average annual number of people affected by climate-related disasters would be 375 million and this represented an increase of 54 per cent compared with the average figure of the decade 1998-2007.

Having reviewed the data and the method we used to analyse the data we are no longer confident in the specific approach we used, given the nature of the data, as described below, and so we are no longer confident of this specific forecast.

Our concerns are essentially two-fold: the limitations of the data and the limitations of the way we analysed the data.

The limitations of the data: The data we used was from EM-DAT, the international disaster database managed by CRED, the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. This is a respected set of data which captures, amongst other things, the number of disasters that has happened and the number of people affected.

Like most sets of data it has its limitations. In EM-DAT’s case one of the key limitations is that the more recent data is more reliable. This was well known to us and we dealt with this in our analysis by using double exponential smoothing on the data (see the explanation of how we carried out the analysis and catered for the data’s limitation).

However one limitation we did not know at the time and have only recently discovered is that the number of people affected by climate-related disasters in China is unusually low in first half of the 1980s when compared with subsequent years. It is highly likely that this is the result of under reporting from China. Given the size of China’s population its disaster figures are significant when considering the global picture. The likely impact of this on our forecast may mean that we started our analysis with data from 1980 that was likely to be unreasonably low and therefore made our projected increase in the number of people affected artificially high.

We now know that there has been a significant increase in reporting from many other countries over the same period due to better information and communication.

Limitations of our analysis: Though we were clear in our explanation of the way we came to our conclusion that “different forecasting models could lead to different results,” what we should have done, particularly given the high volatility of the data especially in 2002, was run these different models to help determine the degree of confidence in the conclusion we came to.

It does not mean though that there will not be an increase in the numbers of people affected by disasters in the future. There is evidence to point to this likelihood.

According to EM-DAT the number of climate-related disasters has increased by 35 per cent from the 1990s to the 2000s. Floods have increased by 50 per cent over the same period. Munich Re’s database of global disasters also shows an increasing trend in climate-related events. It is not possible to know how much of this is an increase in events or better reporting of events and neither can we assume that an increase in events will lead to an equal increase in numbers affected.

Population growth means that there is a likelihood of more people being affected by climate-related events.

The number of people exposed to some climate-related events is also on the increase. According to the forthcoming United Nations Global Assessment Report 2011 the number of people exposed to floods and cyclones has doubled between 1970 and 2010. It is likely that many people who are ‘exposed’ to hazards are not affected due to measures that protect them, such as flood defences for example. However in many vulnerable countries investment and efforts to reduce significantly the risk of disasters is sorely lacking leaving millions exposed and likely to be affected by disasters.

Finally as the effects of climate change become more apparent there are more frequent and more intense climate-related events according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. 

Oxfam is in the process of further research into the number of people affected by climate-related events and will be publishing the results of this research in due course.

]]> No publisher mborum natural disaster human rights aid reform climate change humanitarian relief disaster risk reduction 2011-06-09T20:00:59Z Research Report The Time is Now http://www.oxfamamerica.org/publications/the-time-is-now Global food prices are up 83 per cent compared with three years ago. Around the world, Oxfam International and many of its partners have seen soaring prices force people to eat less food or less nutritious food and drive poor households to cut back on health care, education, and other necessities. In this report, Oxfam lays out a plan for short and long-term responses to the crisis. Global food prices are up 83 per cent compared with three years ago. The resulting food price crisis constitutes an unprecedented threat to the livelihoods and well-being of millions of rural and urban households who are net food buyers. Around the world, Oxfam International and many of its partners have seen soaring prices force people to eat less food or less nutritious food and drive poor households to cut back on health care, education, and other necessities. In a report published ahead of an emergency UN Food Summit in Rome, Oxfam lays out a plan for short and long-term responses to the crisis.

]]> No publisher mborum 2009-06-30T22:25:58Z Briefing Note The White Oak Recommendations on Effective Global Development in the US National Interest http://www.oxfamamerica.org/publications/the-white-oak-recommendations-on-effective-global-development-in-the-us-national-interest On March 20-22nd, 2009, more than 40 senior professionals from the US development, defense, and diplomatic communities gathered at the Howard Gilman foundation's White Oak Conference Center in Florida to discuss how to make US global development efforts more effective, both as an independent goal of US foreign policy and as a means of achieving other defense and diplomatic goals. Following are the broad points of consensus.

]]> No publisher mborum aid reform 2009-06-30T22:22:01Z Research Report The World is Still Waiting http://www.oxfamamerica.org/publications/the-world-is-still-waiting Broken G8 promises are costing millions of lives As the 2007 German G8 summit approaches, the demands of the millions of anti-poverty campaigners worldwide are clear. G8 leaders must increase and improve aid to provide health, education, water and sanitation for all. They must cancel more debt and deliver trade justice. They must take urgent action to bring peace to the world’s most troubled countries and to halt the devastating impact of climate change. Where action has been taken by G8 countries, lives are being saved. Yet despite some areas of real progress, in the past two years overall progress has fallen far short of promises. The cost of this inaction is millions of lives lost due to poverty. G8 countries must meet their promises to the world.

]]> No publisher mborum 2010-09-27T20:09:54Z Briefing Note Transparency Begins at Home http://www.oxfamamerica.org/publications/transparency-begins-at-home An assessment of United States revenue transparency and extractive industries transparency initiative requirements The Oxfam America report compares how the United States collects, verifies and discloses the benefit streams it is due from the gas, oil, and mining industries to the standards of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative.

]]> No publisher chufstader 2009-06-08T16:17:14Z Briefing Paper Truth or Consequences http://www.oxfamamerica.org/publications/truth-or-consequences Why the EU and the US must reform their subsidies or pay the price The USA and the EU are currently blocking a deal to make trade fair in the Doha Development Round. In the wake of findings by the WTO that US cotton subsidies and EU sugar subsidies are illegal, this paper presents powerful new research detailing a slew of other rich country subsidies of $13bn that are also on the wrong side of the law. In addition to the strong moral imperative for the trade superpowers to radically reform the way they subsidise agriculture, there is a also a legal requirement for change. The choice lies with the USA and the EU: either they face manifold legal actions that will force reform on a piecemeal basis, or they negotiate reform upfront in the Doha trade round.

 

]]> No publisher lmcfarlane European Union United States World Trade Organization agriculture trade 2009-05-27T23:00:59Z Briefing Paper Tsunami Fund end of program report http://www.oxfamamerica.org/publications/tsunami-fund-end-of-program-report Oxfam's final report on its four-year response to the tsunami disaster of December 2004. Oxfam's final report on its four-year response to the tsunami disaster of December 2004.

Open publication
]]> No publisher mborum India Indonesia Sri Lanka Thailand humanitarian field studies humanitarian relief natural disaster 2009-05-29T19:37:22Z Research Report Turning Carbon into Gold http://www.oxfamamerica.org/publications/turning-carbon-into-gold How the international community can finance climate change adaptation without breaking the bank Recognizing that poor communities in developing countries are the least responsible for climate change but most vulnerable to its impacts, the Bali Action Plan calls for "new and additional resources" and "innovative finance mechanisms" to address urgent climate adaptation needs. Oxfam suggests that new financing mechanisms linked to emissions reduction regimes could be the way forward in the post-2012 climate negotiations and yield the minimum of $50 billion per year necessary for adaptation needs in developing countries.

]]> No publisher mborum climate change 2009-05-28T21:42:28Z Briefing Paper Understanding the Effect of the Tsunami and its Aftermath on Vulnerability to HIV in Coastal India http://www.oxfamamerica.org/publications/understanding-the-effect-of-the-tsunami-and-its-aftermath-on-vulnerability-to-hiv-in-coastal-india A tsunami research journal article The rush to provide basic food, water, shelter, and medical care after the tsunami left little time and attention for HIV-prevention programs. Yet, as this study documents, the tsunami and its aftermath triggered an increase in vulnerability to HIV infection in coastal Indian communities. The research findings have important implications for aid providers as they plan for future disasters.

]]> No publisher mborum Central and South Asia HIV-AIDS India humanitarian field studies humanitarian relief public health 2009-06-30T16:12:18Z Research Report Up In Arms: Controlling The International Trade In Small Arms http://www.oxfamamerica.org/publications/up-in-arms-controlling-the-international-trade-in-small-arms An Oxfam International paper for the UN Conference on the Illicit Trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons in All Its Aspects.

]]> No publisher mborum 2009-06-30T22:20:10Z Research Report Up in Smoke? Asia and the Pacific http://www.oxfamamerica.org/publications/up-in-smoke-asia-and-the-pacific The fifth report from the Working Group on Climate Change and Development. The fifth report from the Working Group on Climate Change and Development

The human drama of climate change will largely be played out in Asia, where over 60 per cent of the world's population, around four billion people, live. The latest global scientific consensus from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates that all of Asia is very likely to warm during this century. Warming will be accompanied by less predictable and more extreme patterns of rainfall. Tropical cyclones are projected to increase in magnitude and frequency, while monsoons, around which farming systems are designed, are expected to become more temperamental in their strength and time of onset. This report asks, will global warming send Asia and the Pacific 'up in smoke'?

]]> No publisher mborum Central and South Asia East Asia climate change 2009-05-29T21:29:11Z Research Report Cuba: Weathering the Storm http://www.oxfamamerica.org/publications/weathering-the-storm Lessons in risk reduction by Martha Thompson with Izaskun Gaviria

Cuba is a case study in successful disaster risk reduction. At the national level, Cuba's disaster legislation, public education on disasters, meteorological research, early warning system, effective communication system for emergencies, comprehensive emergency plan, and Civil Defense structure are important resources in avoiding disaster. At the local level, high levels of literacy, developed infrastructure in rural areas and access to reliable health care are crucial for national efforts in disaster mitigation, preparation and response. Weathering the Storm: Lessons in Risk Reduction from Cuba presents a comprehensive overview of the Cuban model of risk reduction in disaster mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery, and explores what may be adapted from this model in other countries. The report focuses on specific recommendations for Central America.

]]> No publisher mborum Caribbean Cuba disaster risk reduction humanitarian relief natural disaster 2009-06-30T22:13:33Z Research Report What Happened at the G20? http://www.oxfamamerica.org/publications/what-happened-at-the-g20 Initial analysis of the London summit G20 leaders met for the second time in London on April 2, as the global economic crisis began to crash across the borders of poor countries with ever-greater severity. Oxfam's research shows rising human impacts in the shape of job losses, falling remittances to the families of migrant workers and a particularly severe impact on women workers in global supply chains. Based on the latest forecasts, published on the eve of the summit, Oxfam estimates that the crisis could push 100 million people into poverty in 2009 alone.

Against this backdrop, how did the G20 leaders perform?

]]> No publisher mborum G20 aid reform food security hunger livelihood politics and government trade 2010-09-27T20:11:16Z Briefing Note What happened in Hong Kong? http://www.oxfamamerica.org/publications/what-happened-in-hong-kong Initial analysis of the WTO Ministerial, December 2005 The WTO Hong Kong ministerial meeting was a lost opportunity to make trade fairer for poor people around the world. Rich countries put their commercial interests before those of developing countries. Most of the difficult decisions were put off to a further meeting in early 2006, but it is far from clear why rich countries that were unable to show the necessary leadership in Hong Kong will behave any differently in a few months’ time.

]]> No publisher mborum World Trade Organization trade 2009-05-27T22:53:12Z Briefing Paper