Oxfam America

Fact Sheet on Humanitarian Implications of Military Action in Iraq

March, 2003
Current Situation

  • Approximately 22-25 million people live in Iraq of which 13 million are children.

  • Iraq's infrastructure is extremely fragile due to two wars and prolonged economic sanctions imposed by the UN in 1991.

  • 16 million Iraqi civilians are completely dependent on government-distributed food rations.

  • The UN estimates that 5 million Iraqis do not have access to safe water and sanitation.

  • The country's main source of water, the Tigris, receives half a million tons of raw or partially-treated sewage each day.

  • Half of all sewage treatment plants do not work and of those that do, one-quarter do not meet Iraq's own environmental standards.

  • UNICEF now reports that only 45.7% (compared with 75% before the 1991 Gulf War) of homes have piped water of which 65% is not treated.

  • UNICEF reports that one child in every eight in Iraq dies before the age of five and that under-five mortality rose from 56 per 1,000 live births in the late 1980s to 131 per 1,000 a decade later.

  • 1 million or one-third of Iraqi children suffers from malnutrition, which is up by 160% in the last decade.

  • 7 out of 10 infant deaths result from diarrhea or acute respiratory infection linked to polluted water or malnutrition.

  • According to USAID, there are only 9,400 physicians for a population of 25 million.

Possible Humanitarian Implications of Military Action in Iraq

  • Bombing may destroy the water and sanitation systems, sewage treatment and electricity supply leaving 50% of the Iraqi population without access to potable water and causing sewage to back up into the streets, which could lead to cholera and dysentery epidemics.

  • If the Oil-for-Food Program is disrupted, it may lead to food shortages, increased malnutrition and possibly starvation unless means are found to immediately maintain the pipeline and structure of the program on which 60% of the population is reliant.

  • The UN reports that household food reserves are expected to last for no more than six weeks and 460,000 tons of food per month will be needed, which is four times the quantity delivered during the Afghanistan crisis.

  • 10 million Iraqis may need immediate food aid in the event of war, of which 5.2 million are children under five or women in some stage of childbearing or infant care.

  • UNICEF estimates that more than 2 million Iraqi children will require therapeutic feeding in the event of a conflict and is planning to provide nutrition assistance to 700,000 pregnant and lactating women.

  • The UNHCR estimates that up to 2 million people may become internally displaced, while between 600,000 and 1.45 million asylum seekers may flee towards neighboring countries.

  • UNHCR lacks more than two-thirds of the $60 million it will need, and has been forced to spend $16 million from its emergency fund, which takes money away from pressing needs all over the rest of the world, such as the growing refugee crisis in war-ravaged West Africa and a massive program to help Afghans return home.

  • The UN estimates that as many as 500,000 people may be injured in the fighting and require emergency medical attention.

Preparedness of the Humanitarian Community to Respond to Military Action in Iraq

  • The UN has reported that there are not enough resources to respond to the expected humanitarian emergency in Iraq, and the collapse of essential services in Iraq, could lead to a humanitarian emergency of proportions well beyond the capacity of UN agencies and other aid organizations.

  • The World Food Program has stockpiled enough supplies in neighboring countries to feed 900,000 Iraqis for 10 weeks, but if war breaks out as many as 10 million Iraqi civilians may need food assistance.

  • The U.S. has shipped nearly 3 million humanitarian daily rations to the region to help feed Iraqis, but individual meal packets will feed only a tiny portion of Iraq's 24 million people, and just for a few days.

  • The Red Cross has positioned 150 tons of fortified milk and 1160 tons of high protein biscuits have been dispatched to Iraq’s specialist children’s hospitals.

  • Although the U.S. government has approved expedited OFAC licensing, the Administration’s delay has hindered the ability of U.S. NGOs to pre-position supplies and plan and prepare for humanitarian intervention in Iraq and neighboring nations.

  • The U.S. government has placed the office responsible for reconstruction and humanitarian activities in Iraq within the Department of Defense, which may jeopardize the independence, safety and effectiveness of humanitarian programs and staff

  • The UN has updated funding requirements for preparedness at $123 million and has received pledges for only 37 to 40 million, which leaves a funding gap for preparedness at about $90 million. Actual humanitarian costs are estimated to run as high as $800 million for just the first six months and have been estimated as high as 1 billion to 10 billion over a two to four year period.

  • Unlike in Afghanistan, there are very few NGOs and no UN agencies outside of Baghdad, especially in southern and central Iraq. This will pose extreme difficulties in providing humanitarian relief to vulnerable populations. The U.S. has said it will give $15 million to fund UN refugee work.

  • If the humanitarian community does not have access to vulnerable populations due to the nature of the war, then under the Fourth Geneva Convention any occupying force would be obligated to fulfil its legal obligations for the welfare of the civilian population.

  • If the United States has committed itself to successfully help Iraq rebuild itself following a conflict to ensure stability and the alleviation of humanitarian suffering in the region. Reconstruction is estimated to cost tens of billions in the first year alone, and as much as $25 billion to $100 billion overall.

Conclusions

  • U.S. military action against Iraq would have an adverse impact on humanitarian issues and regional stability.

In the event of war:

  • Resources must be increased to meet targets established by the UN Inter-Agency planning process in regards to quantities of food and non-food relief items.

  • U.S. licensing restrictions must be lifted so that agencies can pre-position supplies and prepare to provide an adequate humanitarian response.

  • Military forces should not engage in humanitarian assistance unless there is no other way to meet life-threatening needs and relief and reconstruction efforts must be turned over to a civilian authority as soon as possible, to ensure impartial humanitarian action in Iraq.

  • Funding from donors must be secured to allow the UN agencies to sustain preparedness operations and maintain field deployments already underway beyond a three-month time frame.

  • There must be access to vulnerable populations during and after conflict, and the United States should use its diplomatic pressure to ensure neighboring countries open borders to refugees and provide countries with sufficient resources.

  • The conflict should be waged according to strict interpretations and compliance of international humanitarian law in the conduct of war to minimize humanitarian impact, including distinguishing and avoiding civilian targets, avoiding dual use targets, avoiding use of indiscriminate weapons, and protecting infrastructure needed to provide basic services, including the Oil-for-Food Program.

  • The U.S. should provide positive incentives for genuine development in Iraq on the long term, especially in terms of sanctions relief, debt relief and aid.

Sources:
American Academy of Arts and Sciences, Committee on International Security Studies, War with Iraq Costs, Consequences and Alternatives, 2002; Mercy Corps discussion on JNEPI; Note to Mr. Oshima, Emergency Relief Coordinator, ‘Humanitarian Meeting Iraq’, Geneva Convention Centre, Geneva, 15/16 February 2003; Oxfam Reports; Kenneth H. Bacon and George Rupp, Refugees International, A Powerful Voice for Lifesaving Action, March 7, 2003; Julie-Anne Davies, The Age, Waiting for all hell to break loose, March 4, 2003; Jonathan Fowler, AP Online, UN Aid Agencies Face Massive Shortfall, March 7, 2003; UNICEF: health workers to immunize more than 4 million Iraqi children against polio, Feb. 18, 2003; United Nations - Humanitarian Meeting Iraq, Geneva, 15/16 February 2003, Chairman’s summary; United Nations – Press Briefing on Humanitarian Preparedness Planning for Iraq, February 13, 2002; United Nations Inter-Agency Preparedness Planning for Iraq and Neighboring Countries: Updated Funding Requirements for Humanitarian Preparedness Measures, February 14, 2003; CSIS report “A Wiser Peace: An Action Strategy for a Post-Conflict Iraq’, Frederick D. Barton and Bathsheba N. Crocker, January, 2003.